George Soros / 2013 / Macro
When policy changes direction.
George Soros and the workbook’s Abenomics currency case.
Before the outcome was obvious.
The yen case in the workbook is framed around a change in monetary ambition: Abenomics and Bank of Japan easing. A currency trade turns that view into a relative judgment. What matters is not just what one central bank does, but how its stance compares with the other side of the pair and with expectations already embedded in prices. The model condenses that process into one position and one outcome.
What could have gone wrong
Policy disappointment, crowded positioning and shifts in the other currency can reverse an apparently straightforward monetary-policy trade.
Compare policy with expectations, not simply with yesterday’s policy.
Put the thesis to the test.
Change the assumptions and watch the arithmetic update. These are simplified scenarios; they do not recreate the instrument’s pricing or the path of the trade.
How this model works
Profit ratio = profit ÷ stated position. Exposure ratio = stated position ÷ fund assets. Neither is a measure of maximum loss or a net investor return.
The workbook’s simple annualisation is profit ratio × 365 ÷ duration = 42.6%. It is linear, not compounded, and is not a repeatable annual return. Fees, financing, collateral, premium carry and changing exposures are not modelled.
What these figures mean.
Source: Legendary Trades Models, Master Comparison!A17:L17; Trade P&L Models, case 14. The following are original workbook inputs, preserved for transparency. They are estimates, not independently audited results.
- Workbook position
- $10bn
- Workbook “gross profit”
- $1.4bn
- Workbook duration
- 120 days
- Workbook fund assets
- $24bn
- Workbook fund return
- 22%
- Workbook position ROI
- 14%
The fund-return field is a separate source claim, not a calculated result of this trade. Its reporting period and gross/net basis are not independently established here. Model ratios are recalculated from inputs rather than copied from rounded source ROI values.