Jim Rogers / 2004 / Commodity Long
The patience of a supply cycle.
Jim Rogers and the long horizon of a commodity thesis.
Before the outcome was obvious.
The workbook uses Rogers’s commodities case to connect industrialisation with years of underinvestment in supply. A long-cycle thesis asks whether productive capacity can catch up with demand, and at what price. The seven-year model is best read as an illustration of that patience. It does not establish a single entry, exit or independently documented personal profit.
What could have gone wrong
Futures returns can diverge from spot prices. Carry, contract rolls and a slowdown in demand can undermine the result over a long holding period.
A long horizon changes the costs you need to model; it does not remove them.
Put the thesis to the test.
Change the assumptions and watch the arithmetic update. These are simplified scenarios; they do not recreate the instrument’s pricing or the path of the trade.
How this model works
Profit ratio = profit ÷ stated position. Exposure ratio = stated position ÷ fund assets. Neither is a measure of maximum loss or a net investor return.
The workbook’s simple annualisation is profit ratio × 365 ÷ duration = 10.7%. It is linear, not compounded, and is not a repeatable annual return. Fees, financing, collateral, premium carry and changing exposures are not modelled.
What these figures mean.
Source: Legendary Trades Models, Master Comparison!A18:L18; Trade P&L Models, case 15. The following are original workbook inputs, preserved for transparency. They are estimates, not independently audited results.
- Workbook position
- $2bn
- Workbook “gross profit”
- $1.5bn
- Workbook duration
- 2,555 days
- Workbook fund assets
- $1bn
- Workbook fund return
- 15%
- Workbook position ROI
- 75%
The fund-return field is a separate source claim, not a calculated result of this trade. Its reporting period and gross/net basis are not independently established here. Model ratios are recalculated from inputs rather than copied from rounded source ROI values.