Buffett indicator proxy
How large is the market relative to the economy?
250%Extremely stretched
Heat 94Quarterly · 31 Mar 2026
Tools / Markets / U.S.
Daily check complete
A calm view of U.S. market health
Reading the market.
Current reading
Resilient. Expensive.
The tape and economic plumbing remain supportive, while valuations leave less room for disappointment.
ResilienceResilient
78Composite score · 78 / 100
HeatExtreme
92Composite score · 92 / 100
Supporting
Financial stress · Profit cycle
Pressuring
Equity to GDP · Household equity allocation
Data through
14 Aug 2026
Schedule
Scheduled daily · 03:00 GMT
Decade map / 2016—2026
Health and price are different stories.
A market can be resilient today and still offer a thin margin of safety. The distance between the lines is often more revealing than either score alone.
ResilienceHeatPosition within the displayed decade
0—44
Cool or fragile
45—59
Mixed
60—79
Hot or resilient
80—100
Extreme or strong
01
Eight observable signals
Open the reading. Inspect the decade.
Every card carries its real observation date because daily, weekly and quarterly data do not move on the same clock.
Market heat92
Valuation and positioning. Higher means more stretched.
Valuation cushion proxy
How much profit yield remains after real bond yields?
+2.5%Moderate cushion
Heat 88Quarterly · 31 Mar 2026
Positioning
How much household wealth is already committed to stocks?
45.8%Crowded
Heat 94Quarterly · 31 Mar 2026
Market resilience78
Trend, stress, rates and profits. Higher means stronger.
Market tape
Is the broad market above its long-term trend?
+5.0%Above trend
Strength 71Monthly · 30 Jun 2026
Near-term stress
How much turbulence is the options market pricing?
14.6Calm
Strength 78Daily · 13 Aug 2026
Cycle pressure
Does the bond market see room for growth?
+0.82 ppNormal slope
Strength 62Daily · 14 Aug 2026
Market plumbing
Are funding and risk markets functioning normally?
-0.77Below average
Strength 90Weekly · 7 Aug 2026
Fundamentals
Are economy-wide corporate profits expanding?
+11.4%Expanding
Strength 86Quarterly · 31 Mar 2026
02
Method and sources
Transparent enough to disagree with.
No black box and no forecast. Scores show each observation’s position within the displayed decade, oriented so higher means hotter or stronger.
Price trend 25% · volatility 20% · yield curve 15% · financial stress 20% · profit cycle 20%
Equity to GDP 40% · excess profit yield 35% · household allocation 25%
Daily check, mixed-frequency truth.
The system is scheduled to check every source at 03:00 GMT and only replaces the snapshot when all ten source series pass validation. Volatility and rates move daily; the broad share-price trend updates monthly; stress updates weekly; profits, GDP and allocation update quarterly.
Context, not a prediction.
True breadth, earnings revisions, concentration and licensed credit data would add useful context. They are omitted here rather than filled with unreliable scraping or false precision.
Equity to GDPQuarterly · through 31 Mar 2026
Public domestic corporate equity value ÷ nominal GDP × 100
Excess profit yieldQuarterly · through 31 Mar 2026
After-tax U.S. corporate profits ÷ public equity value − 10-year real Treasury yield
Household equity allocationQuarterly · through 31 Mar 2026
Household direct and indirect equities as a share of financial assets
Price trendMonthly · through 30 Jun 2026
OECD broad U.S. share-price index ÷ 10-month average − 1
VolatilityDaily · through 13 Aug 2026
Cboe VIX level, confirmed by VIX ÷ 3-month VIX
Yield curveDaily · through 14 Aug 2026
10-year Treasury yield − 3-month Treasury yield
Financial stressWeekly · through 7 Aug 2026
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index 4
Profit cycleQuarterly · through 31 Mar 2026
After-tax U.S. corporate profits, four-quarter growth
Use it to ask better questions—not to place a trade.
Back to the reading ↑Market Weather describes observable U.S. market conditions. It does not forecast returns, account for personal circumstances, or provide investment advice. Historical quarterly values are plotted at period end using the latest revised releases, not the vintage available at that time. Data are retrieved through the FRED API; FRED terms and third-party source rights apply.
Source citations · data retrieved 17 Aug 2026
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2026), Main Economic Indicators, “Financial Market: Share Prices for United States” [SPASTT01USM661N], OECD Data Explorer; retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (accessed on 17 Aug 2026).
- Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE Volatility Index: VIX [VIXCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (accessed on 17 Aug 2026).
- Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (accessed on 17 Aug 2026).
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED (accessed on 17 Aug 2026).